Looking Beyond the Bomb

the Non-Military Drivers of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Resumo

This article analyses the dilemma of mistrust in the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. The related tendency to view the other side’s intentions in the worst possible light has contributed to the Western fixation with the Iranian bomb, leaving little room for alternative explanations. Here it is argued that the lack of serious attention to the non-military drivers of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has inhibited understanding of the country’s respective lack of trust in US intentions, thus making it harder to address Iranian concerns. Cynical assessments of Iran’s intentions have also contributed to the danger of self-fulfilling prophesy by increasing the likelihood of military action and thus highlighting Iran’s need to keep open the option of developing a nuclear deterrent. In addition to shedding light on the Iranian perspective, the article reflects on the dilemma of trust from the Western perspective, applying insights from political psychology. It also looks at how the seemingly inescapable downward spiral of mutual mistrust began to be reversed in 2013, and considers the prospects for a comprehensive deal.