Nuclear Strategy and Leadership Change in North Korea

Old Soju in a New Bottle

Resumo

Under the leaderships of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, North Korea developed a nuclear strategy that cyclically mixed acts of confrontation and engagement towards other actors in the political stage of Northeast Asia. That strategy sought to avoid the end of Pyongyang’s nuclear program and, in a complementing way, to extract international benefits through negotiations. When he succeeded his father, Kim Jong-un signalled trans‑ formation at the levels of leadership’s public im‑ age, the military predominance in the regime, and economic reform. However, that transformative tendency did not reach nuclear strategy. Kim Jongun basically kept intact the strategy inherited from Kim Jong-il, an option that is perfectly illustrated by the nuclear test of 12 February 2013. This article offers an explanation for the fact that leadership change did not affect nuclear strategy, arguing that it was due to the persistence of an international context that is negative for the survival of the North Korean regime and to the political fragility of Kim Jong-un at domestic level.