The 2022 invasion of Ukraine

a driving force behind the European Union’s enlargement?

Abstract

This article presents a mixed-methods analysis of the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, on the European Union’s enlargement and the accession processes of each candidate, potential candidate and applicant country. After providing a brief explanation of the Union’s accession process, based on the 2021 revised methodology, the article presents a quantitative analysis using the European Commission’s progress reports. This analysis compares two periods: the post-invasion period (2022–24) and the pre-invasion period (2018–21), which includes the pre-pandemic years. The qualitative dimension explores the specific developments of each country during these periods. The study concludes by considering the prospects and challenges for each candidate country, taking into account the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the progress of their accession processes.