Presidential elections in semi-presidential systems: electoral participation and punishing governments

Abstract

This article tests the hypothesis that presidential elections in semi-presidential systems are second-tier elections, in other words elections which, on the one hand, are less important to voters and have lower turnouts and, on the other hand, in which the major parties - especially those in power - tend to be punished in terms of voteshare. This hypothesis is tested through the use of overall election data from all the elections which have taken place in semi-presidential democracies since 1945. The article concludes that only partial «second-tier» patterns are to be found in these elections and that their results depend, in addition, on what powers are available to the president, thereby casting doubt on the substantive usefulness of the general description of certain systems of government as «semi-presidential», at least as far as detectable patterns of voter behaviour are concerned.