Glimpses of Tomorrow

the Coming Age of Autonomous Air Warfare

Resumo

Although future cannot be predicted, it is imperative to exercise a long term prospective view aiming to capture important trends in the security environment, which can improve the understanding of the nature and character of future war, thus assisting the definition of strategy, defence and operational planning. Throughout the short history of Air Power, we have witnessed a change of the relationship of man with the machine. This essay will describe the current state of play regarding these changes, exploring competing arguments, in order to demonstrate the potential shift to a new military paradigm. The analysis of autonomy and the main drivers towards autonomous systems will be confronted by the challenges and implications of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems. This will highlight the implications of specific mission tailored autonomous systems, thus aiming to regulate its development and employment. The main thesis presented emphasizes the need to leverage the human-machine interface, which can provide the best immediate benefits, while further consideration should be given before embracing full autonomous operational templates.