Navigating Through Unchartered Waters

’Brexit' Impact on European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy - Who Loses and Who Wins?

Resumo

This paper assesses the possible consequences of ‘Brexit’ on the European Union’s foreign, security and defence policy. This prospective exercise is focused on four major topics: the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) foreign policies; UK and United States (U.S.) relations; the future developments of Common Security and Defence Policy; and the new balance of power within the EU. At least for now, the outcome of this divorce will result in a negative sum game. Despite the consequences of the UK’s departure on foreign and security domains being relatively marginal in contrast with other aspects of the UK-EU relationship, such as those of a financial and economic nature, it is crucial to anticipate the possible effects, most particularly the long-term ones produced by the new correlation of forces within the Union created by ‘Brexit’, which at this stage are difficult to fully assess.