Analysis of seasonal pattern and variation in prices paid for corn producers in São Paulo state, Brazil

Abstract

This article intends to make the analysis of change in the price level paid for corn producers in São Paulo state. To this end, we used data on grain prices for the period from 2004 to 2015 in this State. It is considered that the price is the most important variable in the farmers decision-making. With the results obtained by the moving average and regression analysis it was possible to ascertain the fluctuation of corn prices level during the period under review due to crop losses, economic crises, etc. Looking through the price seasonal variation index we see that the months that provide greater economic benefits to the producer corresponds to the months of October to March each year. On the part of the buyer, the best period for the purchase of corn is from April to September.