Farmland prices trends in Paraná state between 1998-2015

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze trends in farmland prices in Paraná, between 1998-2015. For this purpose, from a conjectural analysis, Paraná State farmland prices were used. In addition, the correlation among variables of main determinants of farmland prices in Paraná State (gross Production Value, rural credit, exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate) was estimated by the Pearson correlation test. Finally a cluster analysis of Paraná State regions was made, through the Ward method, based on degree of similarity of farmland prices amongst Paraná State regions. During the analysis period, it was verified an annual increase of 8,53% in farmland prices in Paraná. From the results, especially considering the correlation, it was possible to infer that farmland prices rise subsequently to an increase in agricultural commodities prices, or currency exchange variation. High valued farmland have prices less sensitive to changes in the economy.