Between exit and voice. Differential factors of abstentionists and populist voters in Portugal

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the rise of populist support and increasing rates of abstention in European democracies. Empirical studies have shown that populist parties are gaining traction among voters, while abstention rates are also on the rise, particularly among “temporary” abstentionists who refrain from voting due to situational factors. We delve into this matter by utilising an original survey on a representative sample of the Portuguese population conducted in 2020. The findings suggest that there are similarities between voting for populist radical right parties and abstention, particularly in terms of “protest” attitudes, which set them apart from supporters of non-populist parties. Additionally, the study indicates that both phenomena are influenced by short-term factors related to the supply side of politics. However, abstentionists are more likely to belong to lower socio-economic strata and exhibit lower levels of political interest.