Theories of population and modernity: the Portuguese case

Abstract

The confrontation between populationists and antipopulationists had its origin in the so-called demographic question. The polemic unleashed by this conflict reached a climax following the publication, in 1798, of the first edition of the Essay on the Principle of Population by Malthus. Until the end of the nineteenth century, the debate was focused almost exclusively on the relationship between demographic growth and the increase in means of sustenance. Although the scientific foundations of the Malthusian theory were arguable, Malthus opened the way for the modern idea of voluntary control of reproduction. This was in addition to his contribution to drawing attention to the importance of the implications of demographic growth. In 1945 Notestein described three stages of the development of populations, and introduced the concept of demographic transition. He based his study on observations of mortality and birth-rate trends in various populations. According to his theory, the central question is the explanation of the causes of the reduction in fertility. This, he claimed, started during the transition stage, and was preceded by a fall in the rate of mortality. The combination of these trends, Notestein argues, was the origin of the demographic growth of the modern era. In this article it is shown that, although Notestein, contrary to what has been propagated, should be considered the sole author of the demographic transition theory, the schematic and simplified version of this theory that has spread does not correspond to Notestein's thinking. In particular, Notestein's proposed explanations of the causes of the drop in fertility cannot be labelled as «economicism». In this respect, there is some convergence between his thesis and the theory postulated in 1909 by Adolphe Landry. This French demographer holds a pivotal position between Malthusian theory, of which he is critical and the demographic transition theory, with which some writers have wrongly identified him. Therefore, Landry's contribution is presented as an alternative to the demographic transition theory. Other alternatives are also analysed, particularly those of Philippe Ariès and Jaques Dupâquier. In the final part of the article, the results of an investigation by the author of the Portuguese transition are taken into account. A synthesis is made of some conclusions which show that the singular features of this transition confirm some of the criticisms of the demographic transition theory.