Bilateralismo Transacional e Soberania Híbrida em Moçambique

Contraste Analítico a partir de São Tomé e Príncipe

Abstract

This article analyses the reconfiguration of security provision in Lusophone African contexts marked by multilateral insufficiency and diversification of external partners. It advances a moderate argument: there is no mechanical replacement of multilateral architectures by bilateral models, but under certain conditions, regional operational weakness, combined with security urgency and
systemic incentives, favours faster and politically available bilateral arrangements. Drawing on hedging, hybrid sovereignty and securitisation, the article develops a qualitative analysis centred on Mozambique, where the shift from SAMIM to Rwandan centrality reveals a dense and selective form of security bilateralisation. São Tomé and Príncipe serves as an analytical contrast: it does not confirm an equivalent transition, but shows that bilateral diversification may express strategic hedging and geopolitical bargaining without existential securitisation. The article concludes that security bilateralisation takes differentiated forms, with localised operational gains and costs in transparency, accountability and universality of protection.