Modelação do Crescimento Urbano Para a Distribuição Eficaz das Forças de Segurança. O Caso português

Abstract

Security is a complex and dynamic phenomenon, requiring new approaches endowed of the appropriate decision-making tools. In the scope of the security public policies, the SIM4SECURITY project intends to create a technological and decision-making solution that enhances security forces’ operational activity effectiveness. It is, therefore, essential the study of the evolution of urbanization to understand the population distribution, and to rationally optimize the allocation of security related human resources. This study presents the demographic projections and the corresponding land use maps for 2030 and 2040. These allow the understanding of the population distribution in the future, and to have an insight about the proximity of the security forces to the communities. Moreover, this study analyses the group of persons over 65 years old, given its vulnerability regarding security perception. The analysis indicates that around 13% (10%) of elderly population will live further than 10 km from a police facility in 2030 (2040), based on a scenario of population decline in all age groups. This observation suggests the need of reallocating the distribution of the security forces adapted to future demographic distribution, especially in the countryside, so to ensure the effective fulfillment of their mission.