Fertility trends in Portugal: a regional diversity approach

Abstract

This paper analyzes the fertility trends based on a spatial approach. The application of the Moran’s Index revealed the presence of a spatial dependence phenomenon, i. e. an auto-correlation inherent to the heterogeneous behavior of fertility throughout the Portuguese territory. Given the changing pattern, a bivariate analysis was made to identify the socio-economic factors that might be associated with it. Through the use of a regression model it was possible to find that the factors explaining the evolution of fertility have changed over time, reflecting the cultural, social, and economic transformations of the Portuguese society.