The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy: a counterfactual analysis

Abstract

Portugal faced a decade of feeble economic growth after joining the European Economic and Monetary Union. Systematic research of the specific effects of this regime change on growth is still lacking. The counterfactual analysis that we undertake in this paper seeks to fill such a gap. Our findings suggest that the adoption of the Euro did have adverse effects on Portuguese economy. To the contrary, in 2009, the Euro seems to have sheltered the Portuguese economy from the worse effects of the international financial crisis.