Dynamics of Portuguese population in the period of 1930-1970

Abstract

The dynamics of any population is determined by three main demographic variables: fertility, mortality and migratory movements. The two main targets of this article are to measure the diversity and the evolution of the Portuguese microdemographic variables and to observe their effect upon the population structures of the different regions of the Portuguese space. As to the first of these targets one concludes that the microdemography of the Portuguese space is very heterogeneous in the period of 1930-1970: a) the fertility declined in every region, but such decline did not contribute to a larger homogeneity of its level; b) the mortality also declined in every region, but being accompanied by a tendency towards a larger interregional homogeneity of its level; c) as to the migratory movements, there are significant interregional differences and direction changes in time. As far as the second reported target, one remarks that: a) the fertility is the key variable to understand the dynamics of Portuguese population; b) when the migratory balances are negative (more emigration than immigration), those balances produce a rejuvenescence effect on the basis and of aging on the top; c) the effects of the mortality reduction, though not being negligible, are after all much less significant than those of fertility or migrations. The diversified form of evolution each cause had at the regional level gave place to different dynamics and, therefore, to different regional population structures. Summing up: in a general way, the structures of those groups placed in the North of Portugal are yet very young at the bottom while the South, on the contrary, presents doubly aged structures.