Evaluation the exposure of local communities to rural fires:

the case of Alcares, Góis

Abstract

The parish of Alvares, in the municipality of Góis, was strongly affected by the fires of June 2017, with 70% of its area burned. To improve the protection of local communities and increase their response capacity, it is critical to assess the exposure of settlements to large wildfires. In this sense, the exposure level of the settlements located in the parish was evaluated, combining the density of the exposed elements, with probability to burn. Exposure level was calculated for two dimensions: structural (based on the number of times burned since 1980) and dynamic (based on simulations of the probability to burn considering different fuel management strategies). Social vulnerability was also estimated, taking into account the sociodemographic characteristics of the residents, as well as the characteristics and conditions of the buildings. The results suggest that: 1) the settlements located in the north and northeast of the parish are more exposed to large wildfires; 2) almost half of these have high or very high vulnerability; 3) the fraction of settlements with very high exposure decreases up to 80% with the implementation of a fuel break network. These results, at the level of settlements, can contribute to a better hierarchy of protection and emergency actions, adjusting the fire prevention and mitigation strategies to the characteristics of the population and landscape.