Variability of the rainy season and implications for agricultural planning in Guinea-Bissau:

a proposal for an optimised agricultural calendar

Authors

  • Orlando Mendes Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia da Guiné-Bissau e Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, Universidade de Lisboa https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7818-3762
  • Gabriel Garbanzo Laboratorio de Suelos y Foliares, Centro de Investigaciones Agronómicas, Universidad de Costa Rica. San José, Costa Rica https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2848-6199
  • Marcelo Fragoso Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, Universidade de Lisboa, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal e Laboratório Associado Terra, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7272-3089

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18055/Finis45505

Abstract

This study examines the interannual variability of the rainy season in Guinea-Bissau between 1981 and 2020, focusing on its onset, cessation, duration, the occurrence of false onsets of rainy season (FORS) and dry spells. Results show that the onset of rains varies considerably across regions, occurring earlier in the south (June 17) and later in the North and East (June 29), with high standard deviations. The duration of the rainy season ranges from 124 to 143 days, with greater instability in inland regions. High FORS rates were identified, particularly in Bissorã and Bafatá, along with the frequent occurrence of dry spells exceeding 10 days in May and June, which undermine the success of sowing. Based on these findings, an optimised, region-specific agricultural calendar was proposed to reduce climate-related risks and enhance agricultural productivity. The study underscores the importance of adaptive practices and climate-informed planning for the resilience of Guinea-Bissau’s agricultural sector.

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Published

2026-09-04

How to Cite

Mendes, O., Garbanzo, G., & Fragoso, M. (2026). Variability of the rainy season and implications for agricultural planning in Guinea-Bissau:: a proposal for an optimised agricultural calendar. Finisterra, 61(131), e45505. https://doi.org/10.18055/Finis45505

Issue

Section

Research Articles