Variability of the rainy season and implications for agricultural planning in Guinea-Bissau:
a proposal for an optimised agricultural calendar
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18055/Finis45505Abstract
This study examines the interannual variability of the rainy season in Guinea-Bissau between 1981 and 2020, focusing on its onset, cessation, duration, the occurrence of false onsets of rainy season (FORS) and dry spells. Results show that the onset of rains varies considerably across regions, occurring earlier in the south (June 17) and later in the North and East (June 29), with high standard deviations. The duration of the rainy season ranges from 124 to 143 days, with greater instability in inland regions. High FORS rates were identified, particularly in Bissorã and Bafatá, along with the frequent occurrence of dry spells exceeding 10 days in May and June, which undermine the success of sowing. Based on these findings, an optimised, region-specific agricultural calendar was proposed to reduce climate-related risks and enhance agricultural productivity. The study underscores the importance of adaptive practices and climate-informed planning for the resilience of Guinea-Bissau’s agricultural sector.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Orlando Mendes, Gabriel Garbanzo, Marcelo Fragoso

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