If the circular economy isn’t circulating, let’s move beyond the narrative

Abstract

For years, the circular economy has been portrayed as the perfect solution to sustainability issues: a system capable of reducing waste, cutting emissions, and ensuring economic growth without depleting the planet (EMF, 2013; 2015). A kind of magic potion that could transform waste into resources and generate an endless virtuous cycle. But the reality is quite different: today, the circular economy is not circulating enough.

The numbers speak for themselves. The Circularity Gap Report (2024) shows that the global circularity rate has dropped from 9.1% in 2018 to 7.2% in 2023. In other words, the world is becoming less and less able to reuse materials to create new resources. Not only that: over the past six years, the global economy has consumed 582 billion tons of materials, almost as much as was used throughout the entire 20th century. The current production system is pushing ecosystems beyond their limits while the Earth's biocapacity is increasingly shrinking (Siegel, 2021).

According to the Circular Economy Report in Italy (2024), the country is a European leader in investments and employment in the sector. With €12.4 billion invested in 2021 and over 613,000 workers, Italy is among the most advanced nations. However, when it comes to concrete results, challenges emerge: Italy's recycling rate remains at 33.8%, well below the EU average of 46.2% and far from the 65% target.

European and national policies are trying to reverse the trend (EU, 2018; 2021). The EU Green Deal and new regulations on packaging, critical raw materials, and waste management are important steps, but they are not enough. The issue runs deeper and requires structural changes. The Circularity Gap Report 2024 highlights that bridging this gap requires bold policies, financial reforms that penalize unsustainable products, and investments in skills for the ecological transition.

However, as demonstrated by Kirchherr (2017), who analyzed 114 different definitions of the circular economy, the concept itself remains ambiguous and qualitative, making its actual measurement difficult. Current indicators, including those developed by the European Commission (Moraga et al., 2019), are still unable to fully assess the circularity of a system, leading to differing conclusions depending on the metrics adopted (Spina et al., 2025). This methodological gap further complicates the adoption of effective strategies.